The Singapore VLSFO–HSFO (Hi5) spread narrowed sharply through 2025, touching a low near USD 18/tonne in October 2025 and averaging around USD 41/tonne late in the year — down from about USD 95/tonne in early 2025, and a world away from the ~USD 500+ peaks of past cycles. It is expected to stay compressed into 2026. Bunker prices move daily — treat these as a snapshot and check a live quote before any decision.
How the spread works
Ships have two ways to meet the 0.50% sulphur cap: burn compliant VLSFO, or burn cheaper HSFO and clean the exhaust with a scrubber (EGCS). HSFO is always cheaper per tonne; the question is by how much. That difference — VLSFO price minus HSFO price — is the "Hi5" spread, and it is the entire economic case for a scrubber.
Scrubber payback, simply
A scrubber costs capital and consumes some extra fuel and maintenance, but it lets a ship burn HSFO. Annual saving is roughly the spread multiplied by annual HSFO tonnes burned. At a wide spread (say USD 200/tonne) a large ship burning tens of thousands of tonnes a year pays a scrubber back quickly. At a narrow spread near USD 20-40, the saving shrinks and payback stretches — new installations become hard to justify.
Why it narrowed
Two forces compressed the spread. On supply, shifts in the high-sulphur market have tightened HSFO availability relative to demand, lifting its price toward VLSFO. On demand, scrubber adoption has largely peaked — the ships that wanted one mostly have one — so the fleet is no longer pulling HSFO the way it did during the retrofit wave. The result is a thinner reward for burning high-sulphur fuel.
What it means for buyers
If you run scrubber-fitted tonnage, a narrow spread erodes the advantage you bought — worth revisiting fuel strategy and monitoring the spread by port. If you burn VLSFO, a narrow spread means the premium you pay for compliant fuel is small right now. Either way, carbon rules (EU ETS/FuelEU, the coming IMO price) increasingly sit on top of this calculation, adding cost to every high-carbon tonne regardless of sulphur. Seven Ocean quotes both grades at every hub and can help you compare landed cost.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Hi5 spread?
The price difference between VLSFO and HSFO 380 CST, usually quoted at Singapore. It is the core economic driver of whether a scrubber pays for itself.
Is it worth fitting a scrubber now?
At the compressed spreads seen into 2026 (tens of dollars per tonne rather than hundreds), the payback on a new scrubber is much weaker than during the 2020-2022 wave. Existing scrubber ships still benefit, but new installations are harder to justify, and carbon costs increasingly favour lower-carbon fuel regardless.
Why did the spread narrow?
Tighter HSFO availability lifted its price toward VLSFO, while scrubber adoption peaking reduced the fleet's pull on high-sulphur fuel. Both compress the gap.